Arya News - Over 100 U.S. fighter jets, along with refueling tankers and cargo planes, have been tracked moving toward the Middle East.
( NewsNation ) — The Pentagon is assembling what could become the largest concentration of U.S. warships and aircraft in the Middle East in decades, as President Donald Trump warns of possible military action if nuclear negotiations with Iran fail.
Trump likely will have a range of military options, including targeted strikes on Iran’s air defense systems to more aggressive operations targeting senior leadership. But analysts caution that Tehran could respond more forcefully than it did following U.S. or Israeli strikes last year , potentially risking American lives and sparking a regional war.
Trump has repeatedly signaled a willingness to use force to pressure Iran into curbing its nuclear program and has previously condemned Tehran over its bloody crackdown on nationwide protests.
Retired Lt. Col. Mike Nelson, who has extensive experience with U.S. Central Command, told NewsNation he believes military action against Iran could be imminent.
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“The president has signaled his intent and done a lot of bluster around this. He does not like to be accused of backing down,” he said.
Nelson predicted the U.S. could carry out a large-scale strike, pause and claim victory.
“It will be some kind of face-saving thing; that’s potentially likely,” he said, adding that sustained pressure would require a “campaign to coerce them to change their calculus.”
On Friday, Trump said of talks with Iran, “I’m not happy with the fact they’re not giving us what we want to have. No, I’m not happy.”
US citizens urged to leave Israel
The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem is now urging the departure of nonessential government workers and their families from Israel as the strike threat looms.
U.S. citizens should “consider leaving Israel while commercial flights are available,” the advisory noted, and urged against travel to Israel.
Rolene Marks, a journalist based in Modi’in, Israel, told NewsNation that there has been no directive to Israelis to shelter in place.
“You can definitely sense the tension in the air,” Marks said. “All of us are thinking, when is it going to happen already? There’s lots and lots of trepidation as we head into the Shabbat.”
“A huge number of American forces are now assembled in the region, the most since Desert Storm,” Ward Carroll, a retired Navy commander with 15 years of experience in F-14 Tomcats, told NewsNation.
Carroll said while it appears an attack is highly likely to occur; it might not be enough to secure a regime change in Iran.
“It seems like this momentum is irreversible, and the Pentagon is emboldened by the successes of Operations Midnight Hammer and Absolute Resolve ,” he said. “The immediate strike goal may fall short of Iranian regime change, but my guess is we will see strikes on Iran’s nuclear weapons capability and other military targets in the next few weeks, if not days.”
US warships and aircraft in the Middle East
In recent weeks, the U.S. has moved more fighter jets and support aircraft into the Middle East and onto bases in Europe, further expanding its military footprint.
The USS Abraham Lincoln and three guided-missile destroyers have been operating in the Arabian Sea since late January after being redirected from the South China Sea.
Two weeks later, Trump ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford , the world’s largest aircraft carrier, to deploy alongside three destroyers and more than 5,000 additional personnel. With its arrival, the Navy’s presence in the region is expected to grow to at least 16 ships — surpassing the 11-vessel fleet previously stationed in the Caribbean Sea.
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In addition to the carrier groups, the U.S. has deployed more than 100 fighter jets — including F-35s, F-22s, F-15s and F-16s — from bases in the U.S. and Europe, according to the Military Air Tracking Alliance. The group also reported more than 100 aerial refueling tankers and over 200 cargo aircraft moving into the region and European bases in mid-February.
Marks said the Ford was docked in Haifa Port on Friday as part of the “military buildup.”
Fears of civilian casualties and a humanitarian crisis
An Iranian refugee who spoke to NewsNation under a condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal noted that there are no bomb shelters in the country for civilians to seek protection.
“There are no bomb shelters built in Iran for people’s safety. If war were to happen, people would have to rely on their own homes or the basements of neighbors’ houses for protection,” the refugee said. “If civilians are not properly warned in time, casualties could increase.”
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Nelson agreed, stating that “if we conduct strikes, there will definitely be casualties on the Iranian side.”
Additionally, Tehran has suffered from a water crisis, and if the U.S. were to hit a water structure, it could result in a possible humanitarian disaster, the refugee said.
“Currently, water reserves in many parts of the country are critically low,” they said. “If this situation continues, the water crisis could severely disrupt daily life, damage agriculture and the economy, and put many lives at risk.”
‘Significant progress’ made in US-Iran nuclear talks
Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran made progress in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program Thursday, but talks ended without a deal that could avert potential military conflict.
Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, who mediated Thursday’s talks , said “technical-level” discussions are scheduled for next week in Vienna following the meetings in Geneva.
“We have finished the day after significant progress in the negotiation between the United States and Iran,” Al Busaidi wrote on X.
He offered few details about whether the two sides had resolved their most difficult disputes.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas described the talks as among the most serious between the two sides, telling state television, “We reached agreement on some issues, and there are differences regarding some other issues.”
He added that another round of talks would take place soon, likely within a week.
There was no immediate official comment from the White House’s negotiation team, but Axios cited a senior U.S. official calling the Geneva talks “positive.”
The Iranian refugee said if the potential U.S. attack on Iran does not topple regime leaders, it will be of no help to the Iranian people.
“If they don’t overthrow the regime and if one of them takes power, the country will face an increase in terror, executions, and violence,” they said.
They added, “I don’t know how much it would matter if they chose the so-called reformists and only change the Supreme Leader of Iran, replacing him with another figure from within the same regime. The country would remain the same because there is no real difference between reformists and hardliners in this government. They are the same dictators wearing different masks. People within the government and the regime act as if all the country’s problems are caused solely by the Supreme Leader, and that by replacing him and reforming the existing system, everything will suddenly improve.”
The White House did not respond immediately for comment.
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